000 AXNT20 KNHC 111045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 1N30W EQ40W EQ50W. A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE AXIS ALONG 35W/36W FROM THE EQ TO 6N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO THE S OF THE AXIS E OF 14W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W WWARD TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING EWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N62W TO 27N69W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE SFC LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS DISSIPATED...A REMNANT WEAK TROUGH LIES IN THE AREA FROM 18N81W TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENISULA NEAR 22N87W. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE REMNANT TROUGH...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FARTHER TO THE NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ONE OF THE MOST PERSISENT AREAS OF RAIN THIS EARLY MORNING IS OFF THE COAST OF S FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING SWWARD INLAND OVER EXTREME SE FLORIDA. ENE WINDS NEAR 25-30 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE BOUNDARY E OF THE BAHAMAS. FAIR...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS LIES ACROSS THE E GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS TO CONTINUE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM THE BAHAMAS TO E OF BERMUDA TODAY. MOISTURE WILL MOVE TO THE E OF THE AREA AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS FROM 32N75W ACROSS THE W BAHAMAS TO 19N82W. MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA E OF 70W WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 58W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AS IT ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NEAR FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WHERE SURFACE FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS THE STRONGEST. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTRMS CONTINUE OVER COLUMBIA...PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER HIGH APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY SO CONTINUED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S AMERICA FROM THE DIFLUENT FLOW CAUSED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER HIGH. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DRIVEN BY MODERATE TRADES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER AND BECOME SOMEWHAT CUT-OFF IN THE N CARIBBEAN THRU WED/THU KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE E OF THE AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE E BAHAMAS. THIS MESSY WEATHER WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING FROM THE W GULF BUILDS EWARD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNDER A MID-UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S AMERICA TO 32N53W. DISTANT SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE REGION. A MID-UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A LOW NEAR 33N22W ALONG 27N38W 23N46W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE THROUGHOUT THE REGION...THICKEST FROM 30W-55W N OF 15N. A SWIFT SWLY JET LIES ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JETSTREAM AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ. AN UPPER HIGH OVER W AFRICA IS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 20W. $$ CANGIALOSI