000 AXNT20 KNHC 110537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N33W DISCONTINUOUS ALONG 1S39W 1N50W. A WEAK TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE AXIS ALONG 35W FROM THE EQ TO 2N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 39W WWARD TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING EWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE EPAC TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE E GULF AND W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N63W TO 27N71W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWARD TO 17N89W AND EWARD FROM THE LOW TO 21N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FARTHER TO THE NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND W ATLANTIC NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND IN THE KEYS. ENE WINDS NEAR 25-30 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE BOUNDARY E OF THE BAHAMAS. FAIR...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS LIES ACROSS THE E GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS TOWARDS BERMUDA TOMORROW BUT MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NWARD AND THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ACROSS THE W BAHAMAS TO 19N83W. MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE AREA E OF 70W WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 60W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FLATTENING THE RIDGE AS IT ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHERE SURFACE FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS THE STRONGEST. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED EARLIER IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVER COLUMBIA...PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS UPPER HIGH APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY SO CONTINUED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S AMERICA FROM THE DIFLUENT FLOW CAUSED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER HIGH. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DRIVEN BY MODERATE TRADES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PUSH TO THE E TOMORROW OVER HISPANIOLA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWARD. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THRU THU AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS IN THE AREA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNDER A MID-UPPER RIDGE. THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER S AMERICA TO 32N54W. DISTANT SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE REGION. A MID-UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A LOW NEAR 33N21W ALONG 26N38W 18N46W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE THROUGHOUT THE REGION...THICKEST FROM 30W-55W N OF 15N. A SWIFT SWLY JET LIES ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JETSTREAM AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ. AN UPPER HIGH OVER W AFRICA IS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ E OF 20W. $$ CANGIALOSI