000 AXNT20 KNHC 102337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON APR 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 8N11W 4N20W 3N32W 1S41W 2N53W. EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK TROUGH/POSSIBLE LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ITCZ HAS DISSIPATED AND LEFT A MID-LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) NEAR 6N18W. A FEW TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 15W-25W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF 3N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 2.5N W OF 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W. EXCEPT AT THE SE EDGE... THE GULF HAS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION. WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS JUST N OF YUCATAN NEAR 22N86.5W AND MOVING S ABOUT 10 KT. THIS FEATURE IS WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH PASSES ITS LONGITUDE. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND FROM THE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA N OF ANDROS ISLAND TO 26N74W... THEN CONTINUING NE AS A COLD FRONT FROM 27N70W TO JUST PAST BERMUDA. CONSIDERABLY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM OF THE FRONT. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF S FLORIDA BUT NICKEL-SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED EARLIER SUPPORTED BY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT FROM A NEARBY UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ITS SOLUTION OF A WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR CENTRAL CUBA...INSTEAD IT KEEPS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SE TO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. WINDY CONDITIONS OVER FLORIDA SHOULD ABATE SOME BY THU AS THE FRONTS OR REMNANTS THEREOF SLIP SOUTHWARD. RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BUILD SOME AND KEEP ANY COLD FRONTS OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.. BRINGING COOLER/DRIER WEATHER TO YUCATAN. ONE MORE NICE DAY IS POSSIBLE THERE BEFORE MORE TYPICAL HUMIDITIES CREEP IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF FLORIDA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CUBA TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT HAVE ALSO SERVED AS A TRIGGER FOR SOME TSTMS IN NW CUBA.. OTHERWISE SEABREEZES HELPED INITIATE THE CONVECTION AIDED BY ADDITIONAL LIFT/MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. CENTRAL THRU EASTERN CUBA INTO HISPANIOLA SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF MORE HEAVY RAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH INCHES EASTWARD THRU THU. FARTHER E LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE REGION EXTENDING FROM ERN VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS HELPING TO FIRE TSTMS NEAR THE ITCZ IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N W OF 78.5W. OTHER HEAVY TSTMS ARE IN NW COLOMBIA. THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS SLOW TO CHANGE AND IT SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED ENHANCED RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN NW COLOMBIA AND PANAMA CREEPING INTO NW VENEZUELA AND PERHAPS THE ABC ISLANDS BEYOND THU. IN FACT SOME MODELS BRING RAIN CHANCES WAY UP IN THE ENTIRE NE CARIBBEAN AFTER THU BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH NEAR FLORIDA MOVES EASTWARD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WEATHER IS PRETTY QUIET OVER THE REST OF THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC... A DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH SITS FROM 31N25W 26N38W 12N46W THRU THE CENTRAL/E ATLC.. AND A LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE SE ATLC/W AFRICA NEAR 10N10W. SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ARE THROUGHOUT THE REGION... THICKEST FROM 30W-55W N OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ. UPPER RIDGING IS STILL FORECAST TO GROW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS TROUGHS DIGS IN THE E AND W ATLC. TRADES ARE NEAR AVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM A DISTANT CENTER N OF THE AZORES. $$ BLAKE