000 AXNT20 KNHC 101815 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 5N10W...THE EQUATOR AT 20W...1S30W...1S40W...1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS... WEAKENING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WHEN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS MORE CONCENTRATED AND OF A GREATER INTENSITY...NOW ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5S BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2S42W-THE EQUATOR AT 45W-3N52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH NOW IS ON TOP OF KANSAS/COLORADO... OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...AND INTERIOR MEXICO HAS ITS ORIGINS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOISTURE COVERS INTERIOR MEXICO NORTH OF 22N/23N...INTO TEXAS AND NORTHWARD...WEST OF 95W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THE COMPARATIVELY DRYEST AIR IS EAST OF 93W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH ALONG 85W/86W COVERS PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 28N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM 28N70W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N86W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 20N86W... 18N87W...CURVING THROUGH BELIZE AND GUATEMALA TO 16N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...SOUTH OF CUBA TO 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N70W BEYOND BERMUDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PART OF THE TROUGH ENDS UP RUNNING UP AGAINST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...PASSING OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING FROM THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ON TOP OF AT LEAST MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N63W 28N70W 23N76W...ON TOP OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 21N52W TO 24N40W TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 32N24W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 65W... AND NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 53W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PART OF AFRICA NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 32N24W 21N52W TROUGH. $$ MT