000 AXNT20 KNHC 101053 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W EQ32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 1S37W 2S45W. CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 22W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W-37W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SURROUND THE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLC W OF 65W... AN UPPER TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWARD AND AS OF 0900 UTC...IT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N67W TO 27N76W THEN STATIONARY ACROSS S FLORIDA TO A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N85W THEN SOUTHWARD AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SURFACE FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N AND E OF THE LOW WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED AND DISSIPATING S OF THE LOW. A BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED AND PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ON THE N SIDE OF THE 1008 MB LOW. MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SLOW MOVING TSTMS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. S OF THE BOUNDARY...THE STORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY EWARD WHILE N OF THE BOUNDARY...THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING DRIVEN ONSHORE BY THE NE FLOW. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 26N72W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ENHANCED BY THIS FEATURE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE S SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IS LINGERING. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF DRIVEN BY ENE/NE 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER MID-UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED N OF 23N. CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND MID-UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS S FLORIDA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND GULF HAS DUG FAIRLY FAR S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS TSTMS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN. MID-UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE E OF 80W WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. SW FLOW..TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH...IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND S AMERICA AND SPREADING IT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOVING NEWARD OVER E CUBA AND THE E BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE DRIVEN WWARD BY MODERATE TRADES E OF 80W. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE NEAR CUBA WHERE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY LINGER THRU MID-WEEK. REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER VENEZUELA TO BEYOND 32N58W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES COVER THE AREA WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS SPILLING OVER THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING IS THE RULE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE SFC TROUGHS THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS HAS DISSIPATED. FARTHER EAST...A TILTED MID-OCEANIC TROUGH LIES FROM 23N45W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 34N22W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 36N14W WITH A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE LOW ALONG 31N17W 27N24W. A SWIFT SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 14N40W TO 28N11W THEN INLAND OVER AFRICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JETSTREAM AXIS. CONFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE W OF THE JET AXIS. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE ITCZ NEAR 6N20W. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION E OF 20W. $$ CANGIALOSI