000 AXNT20 KNHC 100524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W EQ32W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 1S37W 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 21W. A NEWLY FORMED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-35W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SURROUND THE AXIS WITHIN 250 NM. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLC W OF 65W... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN GULF AND W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWARD AND AS OF 0300 UTC...HAS CLEARED NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N69W TO FORT LAUDERDALE TO A 1011 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N85W THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 17N93W. SURFACE FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT N AND E OF THE LOW WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED S OF THE LOW. A NEW BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED ON THE N SIDE OF THE 1011 MB LOW. MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SLOW MOVING TSTMS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 25N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS. MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF DRIVEN BY N/NE 20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER MID-UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED N OF 24N. CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID-WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND MID-UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS S FLORIDA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND GULF HAS DUG FAIRLY FAR S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. MID-UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE E OF 80W WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. SW FLOW TO THE W OF THE UPPER HIGH IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND S AMERICA AND SPREADING IT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOVING NEWARD OVER E CUBA AND THE E BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE DRIVEN WWARD BY MODERATE TRADES E OF 80W. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE NEAR CUBA WHERE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY LINGER THRU MID-WEEK. REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER VENEZUELA TO BEYOND 32N58W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES COVER THE AREA WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS SPILLING OVER THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING IS THE RULE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR A PAIR OF WEAK SFC TROUGHS. ONE SFC TROUGH LIES FROM 23N46W TO 32N54W. THE OTHER ALONG 52W FROM 14N-19N. ONLY A LINE OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. FARTHER EAST...A TILTED MID-OCEANIC TROUGH LIES FROM 23N48W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N24W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1004 MB LOW IS LOCATED TO THE N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 36N17W WITH A SFC TROUGH DRAPED FROM THE LOW ALONG 31N13W 25N21W. A SWIFT SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 14N40W TO 28N11W THEN INLAND OVER AFRICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JETSTREAM AXIS. CONFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE W OF THE JET AXIS. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE ITCZ NEAR 6N20W. UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENT FLOW IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION E OF 20W. $$ CANGIALOSI