000 AXNT20 KNHC 092304 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N9W 4N20W 3N30W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 14W-18W AND E OF 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS S OF 4N BETWEEN 18W-30W. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM OF 1.5N42.5W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLC W OF 70W... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF AND NOW EXTENDS INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER FARTHER N.. TWO LOWS HAVE FORMED ON THE FRONT.. 1011 MB LOW NEAR 25N85.5W AND ANOTHER NEAR TAMPA. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY BETWEEN THESE LOWS AND THE REST OF THE COLD FRONT E OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS HALTED MOST OF ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS CONTINUING NE TO 31N70W. LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS CAUSED A FEW SEVERE TSTMS OVER S FLORIDA WITH OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 24N OVER ATLC WATERS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE FRONT. OVER THE GULF... A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD IMPACT CUBA SOON.. NEAR AND W OF HAVANA. THIS MESSY WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE STATE... BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS TOMORROW FOR MOST OF FLORIDA. N TO NE WINDS COVER THE GULF AND ARE BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF...ASSISTED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE NRN GULF COAST LOOKS TO HAVE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE S FLORIDA PROBABLY WILL HAVE SHOWERS IN A STRONG NE WIND REGIME. CARIBBEAN SEA... CONDITIONS ARE CHANGING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE AREA BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE FORMED TODAY OVER YUCATAN AND BELIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AND SEABREEZES WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF TSTMS OVER CUBA. TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES OVER CUBA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS CENTRAL/EASTERN CUBA STAYS ON THE FAVORABLE ERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS DEPICTION OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW OVER CUBA SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME AND APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTION FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. HOWEVER UNSTABLE WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN CUBA. FARTHER E...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALSO DESTABILIZE SOME OVER HISPANIOLA AS THE LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT CONTROLS THE REGION E OF 80W SHIFTS EASTWARD. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N NEAR THE ITCZ AND OVER THE NW PORTION OF COLOMBIA. SOME SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A SLUG OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS W OF 50W AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR TRADEWIND SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST FAIR SKIES COVER THE AREA WITH NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ. BASICALLY RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH RIDGING IN THE ATLC W OF 55W... TROUGHING FROM 30N36W TO12N53W.. AND RIDGING FROM A HIGH NEAR 3N22W COVERING THE SE ATLC. A FEW SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF AN UPPER LOW (EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH) AROUND 23N41W. OTHERWISE A LARGE BUT WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE HIGH COVERS THE ATLC W OF 30W. CUTOFF UPPER LOW E OF THE AZORES IS INCREASING THE MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NW AFRICA. IN THE DEEP TROPICS... JETSTREAM RUNS FROM 14N60W 13N43W THEN SHOOTING NE TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE JET. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS LIE ACROSS THE REGION.. THICKEST TO THE N AND E.. WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE DUE TO A STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER HIGH IN THE E ATLC AND PLENTY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN THE W ATLC.. UPPER RIDGING WILL GROW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. WEAK TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS AROUND 30W S OF 6N. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT AXIS BUT THE GFS CARRIES IT WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. $$ BLAKE