000 AXNT20 KNHC 091745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE ON THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-26W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WHILE A TROUGH LIES ALONG 87-88W. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 SURFACE LOW...THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE GULF NEAR 26N-85W TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THEN...THE FRONT CONTINUES OVER SOUTH MEXICO AS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 26N-82W 24N-86W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THIS LINE. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NEWD TO BEYOND 33N-56W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA ASSOCIATED WITH A 1007 LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 7.5N-75W. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST AND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN MONDAY MORNING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXITING THE U.S. ATLC SEABOARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 20N-50W 23N-30W CROSSING JUST NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A WIDE BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS STRETCHES FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA NEWD TO WESTERN SAHARA IN AFRICA. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1001 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 37N18W...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 47-48W. AN AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS JUST EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 40W-44W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N-75W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FIRING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA BETWEEN HAVANA AND MATANZAS PROVINCES. $$ GR