000
AXNT20 KNHC 081744
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE TODAY. IT AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 
3N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 20W-33W AND 36W-44W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 
EQ-2.5N AND BETWEEN 43W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF 
THE GULF ALONG 30N-89W 26N-94W ENTERING NE MEXICO NEAR 
25N-97W...THEN CONTINUES MAINLY WEST TO 27N-105W. A NARROW LINE 
OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT 
OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER...THE FRONT TURNS VERY ACTIVE OVER SE 
U.S. WHERE IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE THREAT 
OF SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF GEORGIA AND 
ALABAMA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER NEAR 31N60W WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... 
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS REACHED THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT. SWLY 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE 
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AROUND THE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRES 
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PRODUCING NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
THIS AFTERNOON.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH A 
TROUGH FURTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS TO COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL SWLY WIND FLOW IN A JET STREAM 
STRETCHES FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD CROSSING THE 
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE JET COVERING THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 15N AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SOUTH OF 
GUADELOUPE. ACCORDING TO THE 08/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED 
WIND DATA...UPPER WIND SPEEDS ARE RANGING FROM 50-80 KT. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN 
NORTH OF 15N. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
DOMINATE THE SEA THANKS TO A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NORTH 
OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT...THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS 
THE GULF WILL REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY 
NIGHT.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NEWD 
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 30N68W BEYOND BERMUDA. EAST OF THE RIDGE A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM A 
CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NEAR 32N49W SWD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 
32W-46W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CROSSES FLORIDA AND 
SPREADS EWD OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WEST OF 70W. AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 
47W-70W. OVER THE E ATLC THERE IS ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH N OF 
20N EAST OF 35W...WITH A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED 
JUST EAST OF THE AZORES. THE ASSOCIATED DYING COLD FRONT ENTERS 
THE AREA NEAR 31N19W THEN CONTINUES SWD TO 25N30W. A BAND OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MARKS THIS FRONT. 

$$
GR