000 AXNT20 KNHC 081052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 1N51W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W... AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 13W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N62W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BEING PUSHED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME...EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 29N72W BEYOND BERMUDA. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS REACHED THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH FINALLY HAS REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS BETWEEN 08/0600 UTC AND 08/0900 UTC. MOISTURE ON TOP OF THE GULF RIDGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT IS OVER LAND FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A JET STREAM STRETCHES FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXITING ON TOP OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 17N60W 16N70W 15N83W. THE WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE 08/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 50 KT TO 80 KT...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAM. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS EVERYWHERE NORTHWEST OF THE JET STREAM AND CLOUD BAND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 29N72W BEYOND BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS OUT NEAR 5N36W TO 8N48W TO 8N60W NEAR THE VENEZUELA/ GUYANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND STARTS OUT OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND RACES NORTHEASTWARD IN ORDER TO COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS WHICH ARE JUST WEST OF 60W. THE WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE 08/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 50 KT TO 80 KT...MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAM IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT LEAST A FEW 90 KT WIND VECTORS ARE FOUND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE WHICH STARTS OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N67W. THE SENSE OF THE FLOW CHANGES TO CYCLONIC AROUND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 25N48W TO 20N55W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N48W TO 31N48W...AND DISSIPATING FROM 31N48W TO 28N50W TO 24N54W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N47W TO 29N49W TO 25N52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FEATURE ANCHORS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N. THE LOW CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 38N24W. THE 998 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 38N24W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 31N21W...AND THEN DISSIPATING TO 30N22W AND 25N31W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS MARKS THIS FRONT. $$ MT