000
AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N11W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 32W AND 40W...AND FROM 2S TO 1N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...AND FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A BERMUDA 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 16 HOURS 
AGO HAS BEEN PUSHED EASTWARD A BIT BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHICH
IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SPILLS FROM
THE OCEANIC WATERS...ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO AND TEXAS...TO THE 
TEXAS COAST FROM THE MIDDLE COAST SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE ON TOP OF 
THE GULF RIDGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF TWO AREAS OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR. THE TEXAS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS 
GULF COAST DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS OR SO. THE COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY IS PASSING THROUGH TEXAS FROM EAST TO WEST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN A JET STREAM STRETCHES
FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE 
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EXITING ON TOP OF THE EASTERN AND 
NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF 19N60W 16N70W 14N78W 14N83W. 
THE WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE 08/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE 
DERIVED WIND DATA IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOW 
WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 50 KT TO 80 KT...MOSTLY ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAM. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR ABOUNDS EVERYWHERE NORTHWEST OF THE JET STREAM AND
CLOUD BAND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS OUT NEAR 5N36W TO 8N48W TO 8N60W
NEAR THE VENEZUELA/GUYANA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
STARTS OUT OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA AND RACES NORTHEASTWARD
IN ORDER TO COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS WHICH ARE JUST WEST OF 60W.
THE WIND SPEEDS ACCORDING TO THE 08/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE 
DERIVED WIND DATA IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOW WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 50 KT TO 80 KT...MOSTLY ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS JET STREAM IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE RIDGE WHICH STARTS OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND
32N67W. THE SENSE OF THE FLOW CHANGES TO CYCLONIC AROUND A DEEP 
LAYER TROUGH WHICH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 26N51W TO 20N56W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N50W TO 
31N51W...AND DISSIPATING FROM 31N51W TO 26N53W. CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 32N47W TO 29N49W TO 25N52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FOUND FROM 25N
NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 47W. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC FEATURE ANCHORS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 
30N. THE LOW CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 37N24W. THE 
1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 37N25W. A COLD FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N21W TO 26N30W.

$$
MT