000 AXNT20 KNHC 080015 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. WARM FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED. A DRY LINE IS INLAND OVER TEXAS ALONG 33N94W 26N99W MOVING SE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER N OVER TEXAS FROM 34N98W TO BEYOND 34N103W MOVING S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. A PATCH OF MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUD N OF 21N. EXPECT THE DRY LINE TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. NLY WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY LACK APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SATURDAY MORNING BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AND A SHARPENING UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 73W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WLY FLOW. A BAND OF MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT MORE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER N COLOMBIA... PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC... A 1024 MB HIGH IS NEAR BERMUDA AT 31N62W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N45W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W 28N30W 27N35W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF FRONT. AFRICAN DUST IS FAINTLY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 15N AND E OF 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-65W. CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. DYNAMICS/LIFT E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF 50W N OF 20N. OVER THE E ATLANTIC...A PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS N OF 15N E OF 35W WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. $$ FORMOSA