000 AXNT20 KNHC 070552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 07 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N13W 4N20W 3N30W 3N36W 2N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 49W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N14W 5N17W...AND FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 20W...AND FROM 3S TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N67W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY TIGHTER IN THE WESTERN GULF WEST OF 87W. THUS WIND VELOCITIES ARE 15 KT TO 20 KT. 5 KT TO 10 KT WINDS ARE NOTED EAST OF 87W. WARM FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LACK APPRECIABLE MOISTURE INITIALLY...LIMITNG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN GULF. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE GULF. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S.A. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN COLOMBIA IS NOT VERY TIGHT. TRADEWINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH RAIN ARE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC TRAILS SWD OVER CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT GENERALLY W OF A LINE FROM COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA. E OF THE SAME LINE...A 60-110 KT SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF HISPANIOLA NEWD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE JET AXIS IS PRODUCING A CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT...THE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO TAPER OFF DURING THE NEXT 28 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA WHILE THE TRADEWINDS START TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGE FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N67W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER EAST ALONG 32N58W 25N65W. GRADUALLY INCREAS OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NAME. A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SWD TO CUBA BETWEEN 60W-80W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH AXIS ALONG 50W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N BETWEEN 20W-40W BASICALLY FROM THE AZORES SWD TO JUST NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE W ATLANTIC TROUGH IS SPARKING A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL ADVANCE EWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS BEING N OF 18N BETWEEN 45W-55W BY FRI EVENING. $$ MT