000 AXNT20 KNHC 061127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 06 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 8N12W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W...THE EQUATOR AT 42W...2S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 13W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N24W 3N29W 2N33W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3S TO 3N BETWEEN 32W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 23W...AND FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 18W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 55W... A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 28N87W. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF A TROUGH...WHICH IS THE REMNANT OF ALREADY DISSIPATED COLD FRONT. AN ACTIVE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N70W TO THE 26N79W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N68W 29N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N64W BEYOND 32N62W. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA COAST TO 24N88W. A TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N62W 25N65W 20N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N69W 23N63W 26N60W 29N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE EAST TEXAS/WESTERN LOUISIANA BORDER NORTHWARD TO ARKANSAS AND BEYOND. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE GULF WATERS. THE 06/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA ALSO SHOW MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ONE MAIN DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM EASTERN CUBA/ THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 25N70W BEYOND 32N65W. AT LEAST ONE OTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THIS LARGER SCALE TROUGH AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH EVENTUALLY CONNECTS TO THE 26N79W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A. DIGS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NORTHWARD. A SEPARATE WIND MAXIMA/BAND OR AREA OF FASTER WINDS...CONTINUES TO PASS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... CROSSES COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND EVENTUALLY ENDS UP SMOTHERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 80W. THE WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 90 KT BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 60 KT TO 85 KT BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N71W 13N78W 10N83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS IMPLIED IN THE CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISOBARS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 55W... LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N50W...AND A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 25N35W. FAIR WEATHER IS IN THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 31N48W COVERING A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH RUNS FROM 14N32W TO 26N30W BEYOND 33N30W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A COLD FRONT REACHES 32N36W. $$ MT