000
AXNT20 KNHC 052324
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N30W 1S50W.  ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 19W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE AREA BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N70W THRU THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N88W.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORMING 
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-66W.. MOSTLY S 
OF BERMUDA.  SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO ALONG THE FRONT WITH 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE FEATURE.  RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS 
INCREASING OVER S TEXAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER FLORIDA 
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.  UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW 
ATLC BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA.  THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
PENETRATE THE NW GULF LATE FRI AND STALL OVER FLORIDA ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
THE NE U.S. DIGS DEEP INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THRU W CUBA INTO 
NICARAGUA DRAWING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND S 
AMERICA AND SPREADING NEWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
ISLANDS. W OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS.  TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA IN 
ADDITION TO PUERTO RICO BUT HAVEN'T BEEN AS NUMEROUS AS 
YESTERDAY.  SOME INCREASE IN TRADES LOOKS LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND 
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC.  
UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO LIKELY BUILD WITH THE DIFFLUENT W END OF 
THE HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.. PROBABLY INCREASING THE CHANCE 
OF RAIN IN THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 60W...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A 1023 
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N50W GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
ACROSS THIS PART OF THE BASIN. THE LOW THAT WAS MEANDERING IN 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO HAS FINALLY 
DISSIPATED WITH A LEFTOVER TROUGH FROM 19N45W TO 28N47W.  UPPER 
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NRN S AMERICA NEAR 6N57W NNE TO BEYOND 
31N48W COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WITH MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE AREA NEAR 31N27W TO 
25N34W ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 23W-29W.  IN THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC... W TO WNW FLOW CONTROLS THE REGION WITH A 
FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.  TRADES HAVE REBUILT 
TO NEAR AVERAGE E OF 40W AND A TOUCH BELOW AVERAGE W OF 40W.  A 
COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY ENTER THE NE ATLC LATE TOMORROW AND A 
CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY FORM NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THIS 
WEEKEND.

$$
BLAKE