000 AXNT20 KNHC 051713 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 05 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N23W 134W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-17W AND 21W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE U.S. EXTENDS SWD INTO THE E GULF...FLORIDA AND NW CARIBBEAN. AS OF 1500 UTC...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W TO A 1015 MB LOW N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W THEN DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF 25N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT NE OF THE LOW. LITTLE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF. VERY LITTLE TEMP CHANGE IS NOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY BUT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN OVER FLORIDA. EAST OF THE FRONT...THERE ARE TWO PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGHS. ONE LOCATED FROM 21N72W TO 31N65W AND THE OTHER ALONG 66W/67W FROM 22N-27W. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SPREAD WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXES WITH THE SHOWERS NEAR THE EASTERN-MOST TROUGH BECOMING MORE CONVECTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MULTIPLE HIGH CENTERS ACROSS THE N GULF AND CENTRAL U.S. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N WITH VERY DRY/STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWARD ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WASHING OUT BY LATE FRI/SAT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY ENTER THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE U.S. DIGS DEEP INTO THE W CARIBBEAN DRAWING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND S AMERICA AND SPREADING NEWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. W OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME...UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE FROM NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY TRACKING NWWD. PERSISTENT CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL EWD ALLOWING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 60W... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N51W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N39W GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PART OF THE BASIN. THE LOW THAT WAS MEANDERING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE AREA NEAR 26N32W ENHANCING SHOWERS TO THE E OF THE UPPER AXIS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 12W-31W. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SUBSIDENCE TO THE W OF THIS JET FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 32W-48W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N40W. DRY/STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA E OF 40W FROM 5N-15N. $$ CANGIALOSI