000
AXNT20 KNHC 050542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 05 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N30W 1S40W 1S47W.  WEAK 
TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR S 
AMERICA ALONG 49-50W S OF 5N BRINGING ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 5S W 
OF 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE 
NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 
35W-42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA 
AND  LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N86W 28N93W. VERY 
LITTLE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. IT 
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS THE DAY GOES BY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MIGHT 
ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY SAT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.  
OTHERWISE...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES WITH MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEEPENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER S AMERICA IS DRAWING 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA 
DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...ENHANCING THE 
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FIRST OVER HISPANIOLA AND AFTERWARDS OVER 
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT WILL ALSO ASSIST THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OVER THE ATLC OCEAN. ZONAL FLOW 
CONTROLS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW 
ATLC NEAR 31N74W EXTENDING SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT.. TWO WEAK TROUGHS ARE SERVING AS MECHANISMS FOR RAIN AS 
AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SE USA. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 
20N-26N BETWEEN 63W-72W.  A PERSISTENT 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
NEAR 21N46W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH HELPING TO PRODUCE 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 25N-31W BETWEEN 28W-35W. THE 
LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT LOSES UPPER SUPPORT DUE TO THE TROUGH 
BYPASSING THE LOW. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 
7N42W. 

$$
GR