000 AXNT20 KNHC 041659 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 04 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W 3N45W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 225 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE U.S. AND S CANADA EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF...FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC. AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N92W THEN STATIONARY TO TEXAS. VERY LITTLE WEATHER IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...ONLY BROKEN BANDS OF CLOUDS STRETCH 100 NM OR SO AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING EWD OVER MEXICO...THE W GULF AND S CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 105W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THANKS TO A 1026 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE MID-WEST U.S. AND A 1021 MB HIGH S OF THE FRONT NEAR 26N92W. THE WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WASHING OUT IN THE GULF TONIGHT OR TOMORROW ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE N GULF ON SAT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AS IT APPROACHES. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA W OF 70W WITH THE DRIEST AIR ALOFT OVER MEXICO AND THE N CENTRAL AMERICAN COUNTRIES. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER S AMERICA IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA DRIVEN BY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THICKER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. NO BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THRU FRI MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE ELY TRADES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE NE U.S. TO THE BAHAMAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. BROKEN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS LIE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE ALONG 70W/71W FROM 22N-30N LIKELY PRODUCED BY A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH AND RETURN FLOW MOISTURE FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A WEAKENING 1017 MB LOW SITS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR 22N46W. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE STRETCHES SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NE OF THE LOW AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A SWLY JET. STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS TO THE W OF THE JET FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 46W-65W. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH IS LOCATED 500 NM NNE OF THE LOW NEAR 30N42W. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THIS HIGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE E ATLC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A MID-UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N38W WITH DRY/STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA FROM N OF THE ITCZ TO 18N E OF 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 6N ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-51W. $$ CANGIALOSI