000
AXNT20 KNHC 041132
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 2N50W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND  
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 40W-50W. CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER NE BRAZIL.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE 
GULF WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN OVER THE AREA 
NORTH OF 26N. A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...WITH THE DRIEST AIR OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE GULF. THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM NORTH FLORIDA 
WESTWARD ALONG 28N90W 2895W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 
26N92W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE 
TONIGHT.     
      
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. THIN HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MAINLY SOUTH OF 
16N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. LIGHT 
TRADE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. 
SIMILAR PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE APPROACHING NICARAGUA 
AND COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
ARE OVER COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL DIG 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN 
WEAK THROUGH FRI MAINTAINING LIGHT ELY WINDS.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN 
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E CENTERED NEAR 27N64W 
MOVING E.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
AND E OF 40W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FOUND NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ TO 20N AND EAST OF 40W...WITH THE DRIEST AIR JUST SOUTH 
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1023 MB SURFACE 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N42W CONTROLS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 
70W TO W AFRICA.  A 1014 MB LOW PERSISTS NE AND FAR AWAY OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N47W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
LOW ALONG 47W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 43-44W SOUTH OF 
10N TO THE ITCZ. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED 
SHOWERS ARE MAINLY NE OF THE LOW FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 40W-46W.  

$$
GR