000
AXNT20 KNHC 031058
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N35W EQ50W.  CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4S TO THE 
COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 32W-38W...AND NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 39W-49W.    

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF 
THE GULF NEAR 26N84W. WARM 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER 
MOST OF GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF 
WITH AXIS ALONG 86W. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 
25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NE MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED. EXPECT THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE TO BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN LESS THAN 
24 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN 
GULF WATERS TONIGHT.      

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PATCH OF MOISTURE IS OVER HISPANIOLA WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS 
MOVING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  
A SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
EPAC ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY SOUTH OF 
17N MOVING EWARD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN...  
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA AND JAMAICA. WEAKENING TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW NEAR 22N54W SW TO LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 15N64W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT 
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N50W.  A 1014 
MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N54W. A TROUGH 
EXTENDS SW TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OVER AND EAST OF THE LOW. 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE TROUGH. DIFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS 
ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 41W-48W. THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 31N24W 
24N30W. A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 50W-70W.  NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS AND WESTERN AFRICA. 


$$
GR