000
AXNT20 KNHC 030613 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 02 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 3N35W 2N50W.  CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4S TO THE COAST OF 
AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FOUND WITHIN AROUND 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
32W-46W.    

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 
26N84W. WARM 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER MOST OF GULF.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
86W. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.  THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A CLUSTER OF 
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS OVER NE MEXICO. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO 
BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.  
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE 
TODAY/EARLY TUESDAY.      

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IN 
PUERTO RICO...THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO NORMAL ACROSS 
THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE NOW IN PLACE BRINGING THE 
USUAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ONE OF THEM IS OVER 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE ANOTHER IS APPROACHING JAMAICA. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT 
TRADEWINDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS COSTA RICA/PANAMA INTO THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE 
BASIN SOUTH OF 20N MOVING EWARD. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE  
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA. WEAKENING 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW NEAR 22N54W SW TO LEEWARD 
ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N52W.  A 1014 
MB LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N54W.  A TROUGH 
EXTENDS SW TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 18N62W.  OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER AND EAST OF THE LOW.  BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
ALONG 31N28W 25N35W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 70W.  
A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW 
COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH OVER 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND WESTERN AFRICA. 

$$
GR