000 AXNT20 KNHC 021057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-19W AND 27W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE MOSTLY WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 35W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 8W S OF 5N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 88/89W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER S MEXICO KEEPING THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE EXTREME NW GULF. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1025 MB HIGH 300 NM E OF BERMUDA AND A 1022 MB 50 NM OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA. SE/SSE WINDS FROM 10-15 KT ARE COMMON IN THE REGION WITH SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE N AND W GULF COAST. GFS FORECASTS THE NEXT COLD FRONT...APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AT THE MOMENT...TO ENTER THE NRN GULF LATE MON/EARLY TUE AND THEN PULL EWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TUE AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN...N S AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS BECOMING MORE INTENSE AND EXPANDING EWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NOW COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W KEEPING SKIES FAIR-MOSTLY CLEAR. A 1014 MB LOW IS LINGERING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W WITH A SFC TROUGH DRAPED SWARD FROM THE LOW TO 15N72W MARKED BY A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY S OF THE ISLAND WITH THE MOST SOLID AREA OF RAIN TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND MOVING OUT OF RADAR RANGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY-MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA PULLS AWAY AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO...W CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC W OF 50W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED 300 NM E OF BERMUDA. FAIR WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS DUE TO THREE WEAK SFC LOWS ROUGHLY 600-800 NM APART WITH THE WESTERN-MOST LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W AND THE EASTERN-MOST LOW NEAR 23N42W. THESE THREE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SIT ALONG A NEARLY HORIZONTAL ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO 29N29W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWARD AND NOW DIGS TO NEAR 18N65W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE VALUES OVER 20...ACCORDING TO THE 09Z CIMSS ANALYSIS...ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 55W-63W. THE UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SOME AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRONOUNCED TROUGH LIES ALONG 40N35W 27N40W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N32W THEN DISSIPATING TO 27N39W. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE POST-FRONTAL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PRODUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26N32W TO BEYOND 32N23W. A SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 19N-24N ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THE TROPICAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL WITH THE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 6N38W 20N30W 25N25W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER W AFRICA IS ENHANCING TSTMS E OF 20W ALONG THE ITCZ AND NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 7N. $$ CANGIALOSI