000 AXNT20 KNHC 020530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN APR 02 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10 3N20W 3N30W 2N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR-3N BETWEEN 13W-17W AND MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 6W S OF 5N TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 89W/90W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE KEEPING THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. A SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE EXTREME NW GULF. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1026 MB HIGH 200 NM E OF BERMUDA AND A 1022 MB 50 NM OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA. SE WINDS FROM 10-15 KT ARE COMMON IN THE REGION WITH SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE W GULF...W OF 94W. GFS FORECASTS THE NEXT COLD FRONT...LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY WEAK...TO ENTER THE NRN GULF LATE MON/EARLY TUE AND THEN PULL EWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD FLAT MID-UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN...N S AMERICA AND THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EXPANDING EWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NOW COVERING THE AREA W OF 67W KEEPING SKIES FAIR-MOSTLY CLEAR. A 1014 MB LOW IS LINGERING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W WITH A SFC TROUGH DRAPED SSWARD FROM THE LOW TO 15N70W MARKED BY A NARROW LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS. DOPPLER RADAR FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES SHOWERS AND TSTMS SCATTERED ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE MOST SOLID AREA OF RAIN TO THE NE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA ENHANCED BY THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THIS AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA PULLS AWAY AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TOMORROW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO W OF 50W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED 200 NM E OF BERMUDA. FAIR WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THIS ENTIRE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS DUE TO THREE WEAK SFC LOWS ROUGHLY 550-600 NM APART WITH THE WESTERN-MOST LOW JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W AND THE EASTERN-MOST LOW NEAR 22N47W. THESE THREE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SIT ALONG A NEARLY HORIZONTAL ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO NEAR 20N67W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE VALUES OF OVER 30...ACCORDING TO THE 03Z CIMSS ANALYSIS...ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 58W-66W. A BROAD UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIPS S OF 30N NEAR 38W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N34W 28N42W THEN DISSIPATING TO 26N48W. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SHOWERS FROM 28N34W TO BEYOND 32N23W. A SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 21N-26N ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTROLS THE TROPICAL AND E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 6N38W 20N32W 26N26W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER W AFRICA IS ENHANCING TSTMS E OF 20W ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI