000
AXNT20 KNHC 012313
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT APR 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 3N30W 1N50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 14W-18W AND E OF 4W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 2.5N26W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW 
TSTMS ARE S OF 3.5N W OF 34W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT COVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLC.  MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT 
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA RATHER DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE.  A 
SOME STRATUS CLOUDS ARE SURGING NORTHWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL JET 
SEEMS TO BE FORMING IN THE NW GULF.  ALOFT AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN 
THE W GULF ALONG 94W WITH UPPER RIDGING IN THE E GULF ALONG WITH 
A FEW UPPER CLOUDS.  THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER THE NRN 
GULF LATE MON/EARLY TUE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE 
GULF.  THE FRONT DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WILL HAVE 
A HARD TIME MAKING IT THRU S FLORIDA.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALMOST UNIFORM MID/UPPER WLY WINDS ARE OVER THE REGION WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN.  THE CAUSE SEEMS TO BE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SKIRTING 
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WITH PRONOUNCED DOWNWARD MOTION 
ALOFT BEHIND THE FEATURE.  CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND NEAR/N OF THE NE 
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS W OF ANGUILLA.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES 
EASTWARD.. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEK.  
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE THE RULE ACROSS THE REST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN.
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE W ATLC WITH A 1027 MB HIGH JUST E OF 
BERMUDA RIDGING WSW THRU 31N70W TO NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W 
BRINGING FAIR SKIES TO THE REGION.  TO THE S... A SINUOUS 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW JUST NW OF PUERTO RICO 
TO 21N58W NEAR A 1014 MB LOW CONTINUING TO 24N43W WHERE A THIRD 
LOW SITS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N47W.  THE TROUGH IS INCREASING 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE N WITH AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS 
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE TROUGH.  TO THE S... PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
QUITE WEAK WITH WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE TRADES IN THE TROPICAL 
ATLC.  AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 19N68W IS CAUSING THE WESTERNMOST 
PORTION OF THE TROUGH TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DUE TO 
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE... WITH WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 22N BETWEEN 
60W-68W.   OTHERWISE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS 
THE AREA NEAR 31N38W DISSIPATING TO 26N53W.  A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT 
BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BEHIND 
THE FRONT.   BROAD RIDGING ALOFT CONTROLS THE VAST MAJORITY OF 
THE AREA WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 6N40W 20N32W 26N26W.  AN UPPER 
TROUGH OVER W AFRICA IS CAUSING THE ITCZ TO HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT 
OF TSTMS E OF 20W.   

$$
BLAKE