000 AXNT20 KNHC 011822 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT APR 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 6N10W 2N20W...THE EQUATOR AT 30W...2S40W 2S47W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N28W 3N36W 2N44W 2N49W 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS MAY REMAIN STILL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2S BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...PUSHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. THIS FLOW HAS PUSHED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WAS MORE TO THE WEST 24 HOURS AGO...NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS... ROUGHLY ALONG 89W/90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS MOST OF THE GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND A BIT OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THANKS TO THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH STARTS OUT FROM AN ATLANTIC 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N64W JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA...TO 29N81W TO EAST TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NEW HIGH CENTER LIKELY TO FORM IN THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY ALLOWING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE WESTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS RANGE FROM 50 KT TO 75 KT ACCORDING TO THE 01/1500 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PERSISTS...FROM COSTA RICA NORTHEASTWARD TO PUERTO RICO AND EXITING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO 24N/25N AND 43W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 72W. CLOUDS AND RAIN STILL ARE FOUND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM A 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N47W TO A SECOND 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N57W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N66W JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS FOUND ACTUALLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FOUND FROM 17N...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...TO 20N FROM ONE END OF HISPANIOLA TO THE OTHER ONE. OTHER CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CLOUDS AND RAIN STILL ARE FOUND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM A 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N47W TO A SECOND 1017 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 22N57W TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 19N66W JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...AND CONTINUING ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N70W. THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS FOUND ACTUALLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 39N41W...SUPPORTING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT GRAZES THE AREA NEAR 29N53W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM REACHES 31N46W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W TO THE SOUTH OF THE 39N41W LOW CENTER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER AFRICA FROM 26N4W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 21N7W TO 15N12W 3N20W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE SOUTH OF IT FROM 3N TO 13N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF 30N EAST OF 60W. $$ MT