000 AXNT20 KNHC 011116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT APR 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N22W 1N30W EQ34W 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-12W. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE UPPER AXIS ALONG 90W/91W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR OVER THE SE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN. A SHORTWAVE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS DRIVING SOME PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE W GULF BUT MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER DRIVEN BY SE 10-20 KT RETURN FLOW. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING OVER THE W GULF AND BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A NEW HIGH CENTER LIKELY TO FORM IN THE E GULF LATER TODAY ALLOWING FAIR AND MILD WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE W GULF ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A FAIRLY WEAK UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE EPAC NEAR 9N91W. MOIST FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR WITH A STREAK OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING TOWARDS THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXISTS W OF 74W N OF 17N AND OVER THE ANTILLES. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED 30 NM NW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N67W. A SFC TROUGH LIES SWWARD OF LOW TO 16N71W AND NEWARD OF THE LOW INTO THE ATLANTIC. SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS OFFSHORE OF PUERTO RICO. SOLID MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS MAINLY LOCATED WITHIN 175 NM TO THE NE OF THE CENTER. THIS AREA OF RAIN THEN MOVES WWARD OVER HISPANIOLA WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE LOCAL OROGRAPHY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO MEANDER AND DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWARD THIS WEEKEND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN WHERE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A REMNANT TROUGH WILL HANG IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...EASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC W OF 65W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS LOCATED TO THE N OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N64W GENERATING FAIR WEATHER W OF 60W EXCEPT FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REGION FROM 30W-65W WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 23N56W WITH A TROUGH DRAPED SWWARD FROM THE LOW INTO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR PUERTO RICO. A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF OVERCAST SKIES AND SHOWERS ARE MAINLY CONTAINED TO THE E OF THE ATLANTIC LOW FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 43W-56W. AREAS OF RAIN ARE ALSO OCCURRING N OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 60W-70W WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. A WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED 1050 NM ENE OF THE 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N36W. FARTHER EAST...SLIGHT TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA FROM 15W-30W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH IS INLAND OVER AFRICA. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 6N35W WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TO THE NE OF THE HIGH FROM 4N-15N E OF 37W. SAHARAN DUST REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA STABILIZING THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC. $$ CANGIALOSI