000
AXNT20 KNHC 312352
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 31 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N30W 5N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 16W-22W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE SURFACE 
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE WINDS ARE 
10-15 KT.  FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE 
RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW.  ALSO EXPECT A 1020 MB HIGH TO 
FORM OVER THE NE GULF BY SAT EVENING WITH LIGHT WARM SURFACE 
WINDS AND CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED SW OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N69W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 14N75W...AND EXTENDS NE TO BEYOND 
PUERTO RICO AT 20N64W.  RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS 
STEADY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS SIMILAR RAIN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW AND TROUGH.  
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS THE USUAL TRADEWINDS WITH 
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE COAST 
OF N COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W 
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 82W-84W.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... WLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE S OF 14N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.   EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE SURFACE 
TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING 
OVER PUERTO RICO AND E HISPANIOLA.  ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS 
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N69W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 
25N51W 20N64W.  TWO EMBEDDED 1016 MB LOWS ARE ON THE TROUGH AXIS 
AT 24N57W AND AT 21N60W.  RAIN IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AND 
LOW CENTERS.  A 1023 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT 28N40W.  AFRICAN 
DUST PERSISTS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC TO 40W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 10N FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA.  
A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EQ30N TO 10N50W.  SLY FLOW 
IS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE WLY FLOW IS N OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

$$
FORMOSA