000 AXNT20 KNHC 311140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI MAR 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 3S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 39W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF...WHILE MAINLY WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST COVERING THE WHOLE AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N70W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SWARD INTO FLORIDA AND THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...POOLING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE N GULF STATES AND OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. NEARLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 12N. A JETSTREAM WITH E PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AND SE CORNERS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N62W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 19N65W 16N680W. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS STILL SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE. OTHER SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS THE USUAL TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST VELOCITIES AROUND 20 KT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF PANAMA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND PARTS OF HISPANIOLA. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN BETWEEN...ONE LOCATED NE OF PUERTO RICO...THE OTHER ONE IS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N67W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 23N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 16N11W. SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ GR