000 AXNT20 KNHC 310551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 11W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER NE BRAZIL AND` THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 6S-1N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO STRONG SE RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF THANKS TO A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF WHILE A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-90W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING. WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 18N65W 16N70W. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH ALONG THE MONA PASSAGE. OTHER SHOWERS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE NW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS THE USUAL TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST VELOCITIES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA/E COSTA RICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 81W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A JETSTREAM WITH E PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW AND SE CORNERS OF THE BASIN... INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 31N63W 28N70W 28N77W. A THIN BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A 1022 MB IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N55W. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ESE TOWARD THE E ATLC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N24W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 21.5N40W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 22N56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA. A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 15N11W. SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ GR