000
AXNT20 KNHC 302354
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 30 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N30W 3S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 14W-18W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 18W-21W...AND 
FROM 3S-1N BETWEEN 38W-43W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE SURFACE 
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF LOUISIANA FROM 
27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-91W.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY ZONAL 
FLOW IS NOTED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM MEXICO BY FRIDAY 
EVENING.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED WARM SELY SURFACE FLOW FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N63W.  A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO BEYOND PUERTO RICO ALONG 18N66W 
17N70W.  RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS STEADY RAIN 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS THE USUAL TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST 
VELOCITIES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OVER E PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 76W-78W...AND OVER W PANAMA 
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 81W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW 
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A JETSTREAM WITH E PACIFIC 
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO WELL BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  IN 
CONTRAST THE YUCATAN AND NW CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS...TRINIDAD 
AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT 
RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND 
HISPANIOLA.  ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.     

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND N FLORIDA ALONG 
32N61W 29N70W 28N77W 30N82W.  A THIN BAND OF LOW CLOUDS DEPICTS 
THE FRONT.  A 1022 MB IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N55W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N23W 26N30W 22N40W 20N50W.  A STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES TO THE LOW NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N63W.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
180 NM OF THE FRONTS.  AFRICAN DUST IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E 
ATLANTIC TO 40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N 
FROM FLORIDA TO W AFRICA.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC 
S OF 20N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EQ30N 
TO 10N60W.  SLY FLOW IS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHILE WLY FLOW IS N 
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.   

$$
FORMOSA