000 AXNT20 KNHC 301142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU MAR 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W EQ35W 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 100-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE N COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING UPPER LEVELS MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA AND OVER FLORIDA. FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS OVER THE NW GULF WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST ALONG 10N ACROSS THE ATLANTIC INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 30W-70W...INCLUDING NORTHERN VENEZUELA. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH E PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PERSIST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE PRESENCE OF THIS TWO FEATURES PLUS A TROUGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THESE ISLANDS. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. OTHER SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NW CORNER OF PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING NE FLOW FROM PUERTO RICO TO E CUBA. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 61W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W COLOMBIA...MAINLY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO SEEN ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF PANAMA. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS JUST EAST OF COSTA RICA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB IS OVER THE W/EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 30N61W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 31N70W 30N75W TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N25W...THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 22N40W 21N51W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 20.5N63W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 25N AND NEAR THE LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EAST ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NE ACROSS CAPE VERDE/CANARY ISLANDS. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 15N15W. SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ GR