000 AXNT20 KNHC 300552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU MAR 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N20W 1N35W EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER NORTHERN BRAZIL FROM 6S-1N BETWEEN 41W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE SURFACE RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS LOUISIANA. THE SHORTWAVE IS BRINGING A PLUME OF MOSTLY UPPER LEVELS MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF...MAINLY S OF 25N AND E OF 90W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS OVER THE NW GULF WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED JUST EAST OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR COVERS FROM VENEZUELA TO FRENCH GUIANA AS WELL AS THE NW AND SE CORNERS OF THE BASIN. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH E PACIFIC MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT PRESENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER THESE ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 60W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W COLOMBIA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB IS OVER THE W/EAST ATLANTIC NEAR 30N61W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N28W...THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N35W 21N50W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. A 1015 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR 20N65W. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 25N AND NEAR THE LOW. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EAST ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NE ACROSS CAPE VERDE/CANARY ISLANDS. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER WEST AFRICA NEAR 15N15W. SUBTROPICAL JET IS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. $$ GR