000
AXNT20 KNHC 292332
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED MAR 29 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 17W-24W... 
AND FROM 5S-1N BETWEEN 46W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING WARM SE SURFACE 
RETURN FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING E ACROSS E TEXAS AND 
LOUISIANA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N 
BETWEEN 92W-96W.  THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO BRINGING A PLUME OF 
MOSTLY UPPER LEVELS MOISTURE N OF 24N AND E OF 96W.  EXPECT 
PREDOMINATELY FAIR WEATHER WITH WARM RETURN FLOW FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE NW 
GULF.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA.  BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 17N BETWEEN 
60W-75W.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N 
COLOMBIA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 72W-77W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 
80W-84W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A JETSTREAM WITH E PACIFIC 
MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO WELL BEYOND HISPANIOLA.  IN 
CONTRAST THE YUCATAN AND NW CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS...TRINIDAD 
AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE 
SAME AREAS TO HAVE SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W.  A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
ALONG 32N27W 24N40W 21N50W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO A 
1015 MB LOW N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE FRONTS.  AFRICAN DUST IS OVER W AFRICA AND THE E ATLANTIC 
FROM 5N-25N BETWEEN 10W-40W MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
WLY FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-80W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 25W-40W.  A TROUGH IS FROM 10W-25W N OF 5N.  AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N55W.  
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 28W-80W.   

$$
FORMOSA