000 AXNT20 KNHC 291802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED MAR 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N23W 2N41W 1N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 11W-22W AND S OF 1.5N W OF 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SERIES OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION... ONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF CAUSING A BRIEF INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WITH ANOTHER ONE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. DYING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE SE TEXAS COAST AND HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION N OF 25N W OF 93W. E TO SE WINDS COVER THE GULF.. MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS EXCEPT IN THE FAR SW AND NW GULF AREAS. THE NEXT FRONT FOR LATE WEEKEND LOOKS QUITE WEAK AND MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. UNTIL AT LEAST THEN...FAIR AND WARM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING TO BE IN THE NW GULF WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 12N55W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM COSTA RICA TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING IT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONT BOUNDARY REMAINS STUCK TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE TSTMS ARE N OF 17N FROM THE US VIRGIN ISLAND WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE N OF THE ISLANDS. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THE AREA...PROBABLY AFFECTING HISPANIOLA THE MOST. VERY DRY AIR...DEWPOINTS BELOW 70F... IS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN PARTIALLY AS RESULT OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND CONTINUED DRY AIR FROM AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAKS MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE E AND W ATLC WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN BETWEEN. A 1027 MB HIGH IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N67W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE E ATLC FROM A DISTANT HIGH SW OF PORTION. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT LIES IN THE MIDDLE FROM 31N31W 26N39W 22N50W STATIONARY TO 20N65W WHERE A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS SITTING. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 30N AND NEAR THE LOW. SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N35W TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN 300-400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEWARD TO BEYOND 32N25W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IS SPILLING ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER N AFRICA AND EUROPE. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N19W. THE FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER W AFRICA TO PRODUCING SHOWERS/TSTMS N OF 10N BETWEEN W MALI AND 14W. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER THIS REGION CENTERED NEAR 12N55W WITH ITS WIDE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION STRETCHING FROM 35W-80W S OF 20N. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS IN THE AREA SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ BLAKE