000 AXNT20 KNHC 291112 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED MAR 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 0.5N30W EQN40W 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 23W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIES WITHIN 200 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS W OF 37W TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH GENERALLY NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS TEXAS AND N MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD N OF 24N WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT THE SKIES S OF THERE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPLYING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WITH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES TO THE NORTH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF LATE SAT BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. UNTIL THEN...FAIR AND WARM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING TO BE IN THE N GULF WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 13N56W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM COSTA RICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING IT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONT BOUNDARY REMAINS STUCK TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB LOW LIES ALONG THE FRONT NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LIES 200 NM OR SO NNE OF THE ISLANDS. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N68W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 35W-60W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N35W TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN 300-400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N34W 23N47W 22N54W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB LOW LIES ALONG THE BOUNDARY NE OF PUERTO RICO. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 30N AND NEAR THE LOW. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEWARD TO BEYOND 32N25W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IS SPILLING ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER N AFRICA AND EUROPE. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 15N21W. AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS ARE NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SEWARD ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC NUDGING THE ITCZ PARTIALLY BELOW THE EQUATOR. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER THIS REGION CENTERED NEAR 13N56W WITH ITS WIDE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION STRETCHING FROM 35W-80W S OF 20N. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS IN THE AREA SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI