000 AXNT20 KNHC 290518 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED MAR 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W 0.5N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SIMILAR CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE NW OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH GENERALLY NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF GENERATING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS TEXAS AND N MEXICO AND INTO THE N GULF W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD N OF 24N WITH WEAK TO MODERATE SUBSIDENCE CLEARING OUT THE SKIES S OF THERE. AT THE SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS SUPPLYING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WITH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES TO THE NORTH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS FRONT WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF LATE SAT. UNTIL THEN...FAIR AND WARM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUING TO BE IN THE N GULF WITH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 14N58W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM COSTA RICA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING IT ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC FRONT BOUNDARY REMAINS STUCK TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB LOW LIES ALONG THE FRONT N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE LIES N OF THE ISLANDS. A REMNANT TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N69W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N37W TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN 300-400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE JET AXIS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE W OF THE AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N36W 22N50W 20N59W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. A 1016 MB LOW LIES ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF PUERTO RICO. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM 25W-40W N OF 20N. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE SUB-TROPICAL JET IS SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE AND THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH LIES E OF 25W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW LIES AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 13N22W. AT THE SURFACE... A PAIR OF 1025 MB SURFACE HIGHS ARE OVER THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING SEWARD ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE AREA CENTERED NEAR 14N58W. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS IN THE AREA SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI