000
AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N30W EQ46W 1S50W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 1N W OF 44W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 
7W-15W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TODAY... CAUSING 
SHOWERS/TSTMS NEAR THE HOUSTON AREA.  SOME OF THESE TSTMS COULD 
MIGRATE INTO THE NW GULF LATER TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING 
OVERNIGHT.  THE SHORTWAVE IS ALSO BRINGING A PLUME OF MOSTLY 
UPPER LEVELS MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  SE WINDS COVER THE 
GULF FROM DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NW ATLC WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF.  NO FRONTS ARE EXPECTED IN 
THE REGION UNTIL LATE SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN 
OVER THE FAR NW GULF IN RETURN FLOW MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERAL SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REGION AROUND A MID/UPPER HIGH 
JUST E OF TRINIDAD.  CONDITIONS ARE QUIET IN THE NW CARIBBEAN 
AND EXTREME SE CARIBBEAN WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUBSIDENCE.  IN 
BETWEEN A PLUME OF MID/UPPER MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN TO 15N70W BEYOND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  MOST 
SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND NEAR/N OF 
PUERTO RICO AND THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THIS MOISTURE SHOULD 
SETTLE OVER THOSE REGIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD 
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  THE OTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS/TSTMS IS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WITH A LITTLE UPPER 
SUPPORT FOR RAIN.  ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN 
WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N80W.  SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD MOVE A 
LITTLE FARTHER WESTWARD AND AFFECT COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA 
TOMORROW.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO HIGHS ARE IN THE AREA... 1029 MB IN THE W ATLC NEAR 31N75W 
AND 1027 MB IN THE E ATLC NEAR 32N21W.  IN BETWEEN.. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO 22N56W STATIONARY TO THE NE TIP OF 
HISPANIOLA.  A WEAK LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 
21N64W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ABOUT 300 NM.  ISOLATED TSTMS 
ARE ALSO BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 21N BETWEEN 62W-68W.  PLUME OF 
UPPER MOISTURE IS ALSO NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE TO BEYOND 31N40W.  N OF 24N THE FRONT 
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME 
AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH DIMINISHES.  THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE 
LITTLE S OF 24N AND RETROGRADE JUST A LITTLE AS THE BOUNDARY 
MOVES WESTWARD SLOWLY BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE W ATLC.  
TRADES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.. 
WHICH HAS BEEN A HALLMARK OF THIS MARCH AFTER A BLUSTERY 
JAN/FEB.  UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  THE RIDGE IS ALSO MUCH FARTHER N THAN AVERAGE WITH 
ELY WINDS NOTED AT UPPER LEVELS UP TO 11N.  PATCHY 
ALTO/STRATOCUMULUS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF THE 
FRONT.  AFRICAN DUST REMAINS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SAME 
AREA JUDGING FROM THE MILKY APPEARANCE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE 
PICTURES... THOUGH IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE REDUCING VISIBILITIES 
AS MUCH AS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO.  

$$
BLAKE