000 AXNT20 KNHC 281058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE MAR 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 4N20W 2N30W EQ36W 2S45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-16W AND 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM 41W WWARD TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE ESTABLISHED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER WEST OVER N MEXICO AND THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST U.S. A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FLOWING FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE N GULF NW OF A LINE FROM 19N94W 26N87W TO N FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS HOLDING ON SE OF THERE CLEARING OUT THE SKIES I N THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 32N78W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ACROSS THE BASIN. GENERALLY ESE/SE FLOW FROM 15-20 KT COVERS THE REGION. THE RETURN SE FLOW IN THE W GULF IS POOLING SOME MOISTURE AGAINST THE TERRAIN IN MEXICO AND SPREADING NWARD TO TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID-WEST U.S TO OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND N MEXICO. HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN TEXAS WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE N GULF. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE N GULF...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM NE MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE WED. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 15N53W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH DRAWING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEWARD FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING IT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE WEST OF THE JET NAMELY W OF 76W IN THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA AND IS CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE REGION. THE MOST ORGANIZED MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY TO THE N OF THESE ISLANDS AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THERE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. E OF 65W...TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRIVEN WESTWARD BY MODERATE TRADES. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. ATLANTIC... A STRONG 976 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS REMAINS OFF THE SE TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OUT TO 57W FROM 21N-32N. A SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM HISPANIOLA TO 32N47W ADVECTING MOISTURE WITHIN 400 NM TO THE RIGHT OF THE AXIS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N41W 23N52W 21N60W AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO 32N32W. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS SPILLING OVER THE AXIS...AND THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N15W 19N24W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N21W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SPAIN. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A LARGE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST LIES ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS DUST HAS BECOME MORE INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD IN THE AREA OVER THE PAST 3-4 DAYS. $$ CANGIALOSI