000 AXNT20 KNHC 280524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE MAR 28 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W 2S40W 2S45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-24W AND WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 37W WWARD TO INLAND OVER S AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE ESTABLISHED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FURTHER WEST OVER N MEXICO AND THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST U.S. A PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FLOWING FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE N GULF NW OF A LINE FROM 22N96W 26N88W TO N FLORIDA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES SE OF THERE CLEARING OUT THE SKIES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW IS LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 32N78W. GENERALLY E/SE FLOW COVERS THE REGION. THE RETURN SE FLOW IN THE W GULF IS POOLING MOISTURE AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND SPREADING NWARD TO TEXAS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THIS REGION ON DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND N MEXICO WILL EASE TOWARDS THE COAST AND BECOME STATIONARY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM NE MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE WED. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 13N55W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH DRAWING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEWARD FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING IT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES TO THE WEST OF THE JET NAMELY W OF 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA AND IS CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER HISPANIOLA. THE MOST ORGANIZED MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY TO THE N OF THESE ISLANDS AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN THERE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IS LIKELY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE WEEK...POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. ATLANTIC... A STRONG 971 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS REMAINS OFF THE SE TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OUT TO 65W FROM 23N-30N. A SUB-TROPICAL JET EXTENDS ON THE N PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND IS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N43W 23N55W 21N62W AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N46W TO 32N33W. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS IS SPILLING OVER THE AXIS...AND THEN BECOMES INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N17W 19N27W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N25W WITH SURFACE RIDGING COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE AREA. A LARGE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA SUPPRESSING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI