000 AXNT20 KNHC 272334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON MAR 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2S40W. ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-22W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS TAKEN HOLD OVER THE REGION AS A BROAD W ATLC TROUGH LIFTS AWAY AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS. A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS CROSSING N/CNTRL MEXICO AND THE SRN PLAINS AND IS PARTIALLY NUDGING OVER THE NW GULF AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF IS ADVECTING MOIST AIR TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST...WHICH IS PRODUCING BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL TEXAS WILL EASE TOWARDS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS THEN STALL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM NE MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE WED. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL BAND OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE E/CNTRL CARIBBEAN...ON THE E SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH RANGES FROM COSTA RICA TOWARDS THE SRN BAHAMAS. THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING MAINLY FROM E TO W OFFSHORE...WHILE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER NRN COLOMBIA FROM LAKE MARACAIBO TO THE PANAMA BORDER. A STATIONARY FRONT HAS HUNG UP FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA AND IS CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEEPEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAY BUT THE CHANCES WILL STILL BE GOOD FOR SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE AREA...POSSIBLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OFF THE SE TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SW ATLC REGION. UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE PRIMARILY OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS LOCATED ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 32N50W WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CIRRUS EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM TO THE SE OF THE AXIS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUD BAND FROM 32N43W TO 22N60W THEN STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS UP TO 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...A TILTED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 32N37W WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE AXIS...THEN BECOMING INCORPORATED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 30N20W 17N28W. THIS AREA IS DOMINATED BY A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N24W SO THE TROUGH IS ONLY PRODUCING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS...WRN SAHARA...AND MOROCCO. TROPICAL ATLANTIC... LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS STILL CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N51W AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-62W. IN ADDITION...THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE E ATLC FROM 20N27W TO 3N40W AND IS ALSO PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE UP TO 550 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AS SUCH...STABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ATLC TRADE REGIME WITH HAZY CONDITIONS S OF 20N DUE TO SUSPENDED AFRICAN DUST. IN ADDITION...ITCZ CONVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY SUPPRESSED AND THE AXIS IS ONLY A FEW DEGREES REMOVED FROM THE EQUATOR. $$ BERG