000 AXNT20 KNHC 271751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON MAR 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N20W EQ30W 2S40W 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN AROUND 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-22W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-13W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE CORNER OF THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS NORTH MEXICO AND THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL E/SE WINDS PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA...POOLING SOME MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO AND ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT MAINLY EAST INTO THE ATLC OCEAN TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL U.S..THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 70-90 KT IS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL CUBA/BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ALL THE WAY NE ACROSS COSTA RICA...HISPANIOLA AND THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY AND LIES OVER HISPANIOLA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND VERY CLOSE TO HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS KIND OF WEATHER PATTERN TENDS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THESE ISLANDS. ATLANTIC... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO SE U.S. THE POLAR JET LOCATED ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA/BAHAMAS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 40W AND A TROUGH LIES ALONG 23W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N45W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N53 20N65W AND THE BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH OR SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING THE COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N53W TO 26N66W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. ANOTHER BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS NE ALONG 2ON60W 25N62W ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC WITH A 1027 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 29N32W. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE AREA PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE EAST OF 60W AND SOUTH OF 20N...LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ GR