000 AXNT20 KNHC 270543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON MAR 27 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N20W 2N30W EQ46W 3S44W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-26W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL...S OF THE EQUATOR. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PULLING EASTWARD OVER THE W ATLANTIC AS A AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER N MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE DRIEST/MOST STABLE AIR OVER THE SE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NRN KENTUCKY AND EXTENDS SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. SFC WINDS TURN FROM NORTHERLY E OF 87W TO EASTERLY W OF 87W. THE E WINDS ARE POOLING MOISTURE IN THE W GULF AND CAUSING UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THICK LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY AND SPREAD 125 NM OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF. ONE MORE RELATIVELY COOL DAY WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST ALLOWING SE RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN ON TUESDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO WILL EXPAND NWD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS STRONGER RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 12N58W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. A SUB-TROPICAL JET IS RIDING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER HIGH DRAWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S AMERICA AND THE EPAC AND SPREADING IT OUT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS MOISTURE IS DRYING OUT AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND LIES FROM HISPANIOLA TO 15N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING OVER HISPANIOLA AND OVER PARTS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE BOUNDARY. NLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED MAINLY OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ATLANTIC... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC W OF 65W N OF 28N. THE POLAR JET COMING AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS CONVERGING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET RACING ACROSS CUBA...PRODUCING STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SE GULF TO THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N46W 25N58W ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH MOISTURE MORE DIFFUSE S OF THERE. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE COLD AND DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N56W 28N67W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NE CUBA ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH. STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM 30W-50W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N39W GENERATING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC N OF THE ITCZ. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LIES E OF 30W N OF 25N ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 20N SPREADING NEWARD TO PORTUGAL. IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE AREA LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. $$ CANGIALOSI