000 AXNT20 KNHC 262345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 2N36W EQ50W. ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF IVORY COAST...SE GUINEA...AND LIBERIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-30W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL...S OF THE EQUATOR. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER WRN KENTUCKY EXTENDS SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES (FOR LATE MARCH) AND GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS AGO IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE IS NOW SHIFTING E FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SOUTHERNMOST BOUNDARY OF THE UPPER TROUGH STILL DRAGS INTO THE GULF...EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A NARROW SWATH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SE GULF IS HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE SKIES. LOW-LEVEL E/SE FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS CAUSING BROKEN UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF ERN MEXICO EXTENDING OFFSHORE ABOUT 120 NM. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NWD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST BY MON AS STRONGER RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE ATLC. A FEW AREAS OF CIRRUS ARE SPREADING FROM S AMERICA TOWARDS THE GREATER ANTILLES WITHIN THIS S/SW FLOW ALOFT BUT OVERALL DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED. THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA SW TO NICARAGUA AND NLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS PRODUCED MAINLY OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THE NRN PART OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO THE PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION ON MON AND BECOME STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. ATLANTIC... A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE AREA E OF FLORIDA. THE POLAR JET COMING AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS CONVERGING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET RACING ACROSS CUBA...AND IS ESSENTIALLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE FROM S FLORIDA TO THE NRN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT LIES IN THE AREA FROM 32N49W TO 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA BUT IS BECOMING SHEARED AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SCURRIES OUT INTO THE N ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N...AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF 28N TO HISPANIOLA. QUICK-MOVING MID-LATITUDE FLOW EXTENDS N OF 23N WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER RIDGE ALONG 47W AND A TROUGH ALONG 28W HEADING TOWARDS NW AFRICA. THIS AREA IS DOMINATED BY HIGH PRES AT THE SURFACE...ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N38W. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG 28W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM MADEIRA ISLAND TO 27N30W BUT IS DEPRIVED OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. FARTHER S...A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N57W BUT THEN THE FLOW FEEDS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 4N40W. THE AREA FROM 5N-20N E OF 47W IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A LIGHT HAZE OVERSPREADING THE ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. $$ BERG