000 AXNT20 KNHC 261850 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N25W 1N35W 1N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W-23W AND 28W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80-100 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN ATLC WHILE A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS N MEXICO AND CENTRAL U.S.. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 70-90 KT CROSSES THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF AS WELL AS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH A RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF. DRY NLY SURFACE WIND IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF EAST OF 92 W. LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO...THANKS TO A PREVAILING ELY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE MAINLY EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF LATE TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED JUST EAST OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A PLUME OF THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN FROM HONDURAS TO CENTRAL CUBA/BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES ALONG 71-72W. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SHOWS NLY WINDS OF AROUND 20 KT WEST OF 80W. THESE WINDS ARE BRINGING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN AND OVER HONDURAS AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NICARAGUA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES BLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EXITS THE E COAST TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLC. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH PUERTO RICO MONDAY EVENING. ATLANTIC... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF 60W. NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N-55W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N50W THEN CONTINUES SW ALONG 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA. A BAND OF BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. A 1022 MB SFC HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 22N40W AND A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N44W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ENE WHILE STRENGTHEN. TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. $$ GR