000 AXNT20 KNHC 251750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT MAR 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N30W 1S40W 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN AROUND 175 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-25W...29W-35W AND 40W-43W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 40W-51W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAINLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 90W. A SUBTROPICAL JET OF 70-90 KT EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL MEXICO... THE GULF SOUTH OF 26N AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS JET IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF...MAINLY WEST OF 90W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE AREA PARTICULARLY EAST OF 90W. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING AGAINST THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND THEN UP THE PLATEAU. CLOUDINESS ARE DIMINISHED OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST AND THE STATES OF VERACRUZ AND TABASCO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING SELY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED NEAR 9N61W AT UPPER LEVELS IS DOMINATED MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD...STAYING MAINLY EAST OF 75W. AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN. A BAND OF BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS OVER THE COAST OF HONDURAS WHILE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD HAITI AND THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN SUN FROM HAITI TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. ATLANTIC... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 30N. A JETSTREAM OF 90-110 KT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA ALONG 31N64W 24N70W 21N75W. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS WITHIN AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N29W...THEN CONTINUES SW TO 23N44W. A DYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO 23N57W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IS ALONG 23N57W 31N61W. A LINE OF LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN. SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC WITH TWO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS LOCATED NEAR 20N40W AND 24N51W. $$ GR