000
AXNT20 KNHC 251100
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W EQ50W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 175 NM TO 
THE NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 11W-21W AND 24W-32W. A CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED ALONG THE AXIS BETWEEN 
38W-41W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN 
ATLANTIC. MAINLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE...THE 
COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST COUPLE 
OF DAYS HAS CLEARED THE ENTIRE AREA. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER TEXAS NEAR 33N96W ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR 
INTO THE BASIN. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-25 KT ARE COMMON 
ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD E 
OF 93W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING AGAINST THE SLOPES OF 
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND THEN UP THE PLATEAU 
ALONG 18N97W 22N101W 27N105W 32N108W. THICK LOW 
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE 
TOPOGRAPHY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF W OF 
92W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASIN WIDE. A WARM-UP WILL BE IN STORE 
BY EARLY-MID WEEK.
  
CARIBBEAN...
A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N59W WITH ITS 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 17N 
WITH THE DRIEST AIR TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. PERSISTENT 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SOME 
OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER 
HIGH BUT DRYING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE 
IS CONTAINED S OF 16N AND W OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS...EASTERN
CUBA AND TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS. BROKEN CLOUDS ARE MAINLY 
WITHIN 200 NM OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS ARE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF 
LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SEA WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND 
HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 
15-20 KT TRADEWINDS. THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL 
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE SEWARD AND WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA LATER TODAY. 
THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO LIFT 
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
 
ATLANTIC...
NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
S OF 30N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 994 MB LOW OFF 
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 35N70W TO 31N67W ACROSS THE SE 
BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
SPREAD A FEW HUNDRED NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MOST 
ORGANIZED RAIN IS TO THE NE OF THE LOW. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS 
LOCATED 150 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MARKED BY A LINE OF 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT. BEHIND THE 
FRONT...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD AND 
BUILDING IN. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO QUICKLY MOVE TO 
THE NE AND DEEPEN. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS 
DRAPED FROM A STRONG 967 MB LOW PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS WELL 
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 42N35W AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG 32N29W 26N38W 24N49W. A LINE OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO THE 
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT A PAIR OF 1017 MB HIGHS ARE 
LOCATED NEAR 23N57W AND 21N37W WITH SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING 
TO THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
       
$$
CANGIALOSI