000 AXNT20 KNHC 250515 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. MAINLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 90W. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS CLEARED THE ENTIRE AREA. A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR INTO THE BASIN. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-25 KT ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD E OF 93W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING AGAINST THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND THEN UP THE PLATEAU ALONG 18N98W 23N102W 28N107W 31N110W. THICK LOW CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE TOPOGRAPHY WITH SOME CLOUDINESS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF W OF 94W. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASIN WIDE. A WARM-UP WILL BE IN STORE BY EARLY-MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 8N58W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING NEARLY THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA E OF 75W S OF 17N WITH THE DRIEST AIR TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH DRYING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS CONTAINED S OF 13N AND W OF 30W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA AND TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS. BROKEN CLOUDS ARE MAINLY WITHIN 200 NM OR SO BEHIND THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS THE SEA WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS. THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE SEWARD AND WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 30N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 999 MB LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NEAR 33N72W TO 31N69W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREAD A FEW HUNDRED NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MOST ORGANIZED RAIN IS TO THE E OF THE LOW FROM 31N-34W BETWEEN 62W-66W. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING IN. IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM A STRONG 965 MB LOW PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N37W AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N30W 26N41W THEN AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 23N50W. A LINE OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCH 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT A 1020 MB STATIONARY HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 20N46W WITH SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHING TO THE EAST ATLANTIC PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC SO OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. $$ CANGIALOSI