000 AXNT20 KNHC 250000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N30W EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 70W... 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 31N98W. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 15-20 KT WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF NAMELY S OF 27N. LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO AND EXTEND TO THE GULF COAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N. NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH DECREASED VELOCITIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. CARIBBEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 71W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA ALONG 23N79W 16N89W 15N92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE SEA PRODUCING SW FLOW. A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN E OF 85W AND S OF 13N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT CONTINUED DIURNAL AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO N NICARAGUA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND NLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE N OF FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 70W... A 1002 MB GALE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N75W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ALONG 30N74W 25N76W 23N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF FRONT FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 67W-70W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N60W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N31W 27N40W 24N50W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC N OF 10N. AN E/W RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN W AFRICA AND S AMERICA FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 1W-60W. $$ FORMOSA