000 AXNT20 KNHC 241753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI MAR 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W 1S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70-90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 70W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF. NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 31N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL ALONG 24N80W 21N86W 16N93W. THE FRONT IS BROKEN NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND UP THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. A WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND COVER MOST THE GULF NORTH OF 25N. LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES OVER SE UNITED STATES. CARIBBEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER VENEZUELA AT UPPER LEVELS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA...THEN CONTINUES NE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN ATLC. SIMILAR MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD STAYING MOSTLY S OF 15N. A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TO JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS SEEN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...THAT HAS REACHED HAVANA CUBA LATE THIS MORNING. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER COLOMBIA AND SOUTH OF PANAMA...ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALSO...A LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 70W... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 12N-23N AND EAST OF 60W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 964 MB LOW PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 40N42W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 31N35W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 24N54W. A LINE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT. A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS WESTERN AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER MOROCCO AFRICA NEAR 33N8W. SURFACE RIDGING STRETCHES FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 19N50W. $$ GR