000 AXNT20 KNHC 240515 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI MAR 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W 1S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-19W AND 21W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED CONSOLIDATING MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MAINLY SE OF A LINE ALONG 23N98W 26N88W TO NORTH FLORIDA. NW OF THIS LINE...DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT IS THE RULE. AT THE SFC...THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO A 1014 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 24N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS AND THEN UP THE MEXICAN PLATEAU ALONG 19N97W 22W100 25N104W 31N110W. A NEW 1014 MB LOW HAS FORMED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N84W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWARD OF THE LOW TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. ALL OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES AIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SE OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE FROM S MEXICO TO CENTRAL/NORTH FLORIDA. THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MIAMI RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG TSTMS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING NEWARD. NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BASIN. THE COMPLEX SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CLEAR THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE AND UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO BUILD IN. CARIBBEAN... A MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 9N60W WITH ITS WIDE ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS COLUMBIA AND VENEZUELA...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS FLOWING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND BREAKING UP AS IT TRAVELS EASTWARD STAYING MOSTLY S OF 12N AND W OF 37W. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER WITH 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ELSEWHERE FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY. ATLANTIC... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 25W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE BASIN FROM 14N-25N. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 965 MB LOW PRODUCING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N46W AND ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N38W 25N63W THEN STATIONARY TO SOUTH FLORIDA. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MOISTURE MORE DIFFUSE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ATLANTIC E OF 25W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 24N30W. MOST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS RAIN FREE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. $$ CANGIALOSI